Q1/2026 was a quarter shaped by two opposing forces: the seasonal boost of the Lunar New Year (Tet) and mounting macro pressure from surging fuel prices. The result — solid value growth but weakening volume — reflects a market entering a period of genuine transition.
The Macro Picture: Growth, But Below Expectations
GDP in Q1/2026 reached 7.8% year-on-year — an improvement over Q1/2025 (6.9%) but well below the planned target of 9.1%. To achieve the full-year growth goal of over 10%, the remaining three quarters must sustain 10.5–10.7% — a demanding pace.
A more telling signal lies in real retail growth (excluding price effects): just 4.5% in January–February 2026, far below the nominal figure of 7.9%. Real domestic demand is recovering slowly.
CPI averaged 3.5% in Q1/2026 but is climbing fast — reaching 4.7% in March 2026, a five-year high. The main drivers: food (+1.6 percentage points) and housing & construction materials (+1.3 percentage points). In March alone, fuel prices pushed transport costs up an additional +1.3 percentage points.
Fuel — Consumers’ Number One Financial Burden
Crude oil prices have exceeded USD 100 per barrel — more than 2.5 times previous normal levels. The Vietnamese government has activated the price stabilization fund nine times, cut taxes to 0%, and advanced VND 8,000 billion from the state budget, yet retail prices continue to rise, with clear impacts on logistics, agriculture, and tourism.
The direct consequence: 55% of consumers identified gas & fuel as their largest financial burden in Q1/2026, surging from 38% in Q4/2025. For the first time in years, fuel has overtaken food as the number one concern.
The share of consumers who feel “better off financially” fell from 63% (Q1/2025) to 53.7% — the lowest level in five quarters. Notably, only 30% believe conditions will improve within the next six months, a drop of 20 percentage points in a single quarter.
FMCG: Value Up, Volume Down
FMCG posted value growth of 4.3% in Q1/2026 — an improvement over the two preceding quarters (both at 1.3%), driven by the Tet effect. But the structure of that growth is concerning:
- MAT volume (trailing 12 months): -1.0%
- MAT price increase: +3.2%
- Even during Tet — typically the brightest period of the year — Tet’26 volume declined -1.2% versus Tet’25
In other words: the market is buying less but paying more.
Category performance is clearly diverging: Beer is the only category delivering stable, consistent growth (MAT +10.2%, Tet’26 +7.8% year-on-year). Meanwhile, Staple Food (-4.7% Tet year-on-year) and Milk-Based products (-3.9%) are under the greatest pressure.
Behavioral Shifts: “Less, but Better”
The three behaviors that rose most sharply versus Q4/2025:
- Cooking at home: 35% → 47%
- Saving on fuel/transportation: 29% → 33%
- Cutting spending on clothing & beauty: 29% → 32%
Notably, 63% of consumers still shop online for better prices — but that trend is gradually declining. In its place, “choosing the lowest-priced product” (33%) and “stopping purchases of certain products” (36%) are on the rise — evidence that purchase decisions are becoming increasingly deliberate and calculated.
At the same time, the small-format premium trend (Less, but Better) continues in parallel: Heineken Silver mini CAN 250ml gained +6.2pt market share, Pepsi Zero Calorie grew 20% MAT, and Chocopie Less Sugar (NPD) rose +136% during Tet versus Pre-Tet. Consumers are accepting smaller pack sizes to access higher-value products.
Competition: Big Brands Still Lead, But Challengers Are Accelerating
The Top 5 brands captured 65% of FMCG sales during Tet’26, but their grip is weakening across multiple categories — Coffee, Biscuits, and Bouillon all show the leaders’ share gains narrowing.
Notably, 10 of 40 categories saw brands outside the Top 100 gain share during Tet’26 — double the number from Tet’25. Challengers are clearly gaining strength, especially in Snacks (+2.1pt, accelerating for three consecutive Tet seasons) and Beer (Top 6–10 brands up from +0.4pt to +0.8pt).
Looking Ahead
NIQ forecasts the market will move through three phases: Ripple (now — more cautious but not panicked), Reprice (by Q3/Q4 — sustained cost pressure forming new habits), and Rewire (2027+ — a new normal defined by volatility, with consumers prioritizing value & reliability).
Vietnam remains in the “Cautious, not panicked” phase — most consumers are managing budgets tightly but have not cut back across the board. The window for businesses to adjust strategy is still open — but it is narrowing.
Sources: NIQ Consumer Sentiment Report Q1/2026; NIQ Retail Audit data ending Mar/2026. Additional sources: GSO, Ministry of Finance, MOIT. Compiled & analyzed by IDS, June 2026.
